Executive Summary

Q2 2025 delivered a clean beat across the board: revenue $472.3M (+8% YoY), Non-GAAP EPS $0.27 vs a ~$0.05 Street consensus, and Adjusted EBITDA $56.1M (+24% YoY); backlog hit a record $5.1B as Energy Infrastructure opportunities scaled .
Mix and execution drove margin expansion: Adjusted EBITDA margin rose to 11.9% (from 10.3% in Q2’24) with gross margin at 15.5%, in line with plan; FX and unhedged derivative gains added ~$7.3M to GAAP earnings in the quarter .
Management reiterated FY25 guidance (Revenue $1.85–$1.95B, Adjusted EBITDA $225–$245M, Non-GAAP EPS $0.70–$0.90) and flagged a more normalized cadence in Federal, while viewing the OBBB Act as immaterial near-term .
Structural demand tailwinds (rising power prices, grid reliability, AI/data center load) and geographic diversification (Europe ~20% of backlog) remain core to the narrative; data center energy infrastructure pipeline is forming, albeit early .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

Record visibility and momentum: Total Project Backlog reached $5.1B, with ~$558M new awards in Q2 and contracted backlog up 46% YoY to $2.4B; total revenue visibility neared $9.8B .
Margin and operating leverage: Adjusted EBITDA +24% to $56.1M, margin 11.9%; management emphasized “significant operating leverage” and disciplined project screening; Europe margins trending up .
Strategic progress in Energy Infrastructure: Energy Assets revenue +18% YoY to $62.9M; 7 MWe placed in service; landmark $240M Sweetheart Lake hydropower project and first RNG ITC sale (~$71M proceeds) support financing agility .

Management quotes:

“Adjusted EBITDA increased 24%, demonstrating the significant operating leverage… while Non-GAAP EPS was $0.17 higher from a year ago.”
“Contracted project backlog now year over year is 46%… which is unprecedented” .
“We are pleased to note that our business with the Federal Government is returning to a more normalized cadence” .

What Went Wrong

Working capital intensity: Corporate debt rose to $294.1M (3.4x leverage) to support growth; CFO called out adjusted cash from operations methodology change and underlying CFO of $(26.9)M in Q2 before ITC/ESPC add-backs .
Supplier risk: Battery supplier Cowen bankruptcy (Ameresco claim ~$27M) adds uncertainty (early proceedings), though management does not expect project execution impact .
Ongoing supply chain tightness: Long lead times for large transformers and gas turbines persist; tariffs/FEOC could raise storage costs, requiring contract protections and/or domestic sourcing—managed but still a headwind .

Financial Results

Key Metrics vs Prior Periods

Metric	Q2 2024	Q1 2025	Q2 2025
Revenue ($M)	$438.0	$352.8	$472.3
GAAP Diluted EPS ($)	$0.09	$(0.10)	$0.24
Non-GAAP EPS ($)	$0.10	$(0.11)	$0.27
Adjusted EBITDA ($M)	$45.1	$40.6	$56.1
Adjusted EBITDA Margin (%)	10.3%	11.5%	11.9%
Gross Margin (%)	—	14.7%	15.5%

Notes: Q2 2025 net income/EPS included ~$4.3M unhedged derivative MTM gains and ~$3.0M FX translation gains .

Segment Breakdown (Q2)

Segment	Revenue ($M) Q2 2024	Revenue ($M) Q2 2025	Adj. EBITDA ($M) Q2 2024	Adj. EBITDA ($M) Q2 2025
Projects	$330.8	$358.1	$7.1	$16.3
Energy Assets	$53.4	$62.9	$31.2	$33.8
O&M	$26.2	$28.0	$3.9	$3.4
Other	$27.6	$23.3	$2.9	$2.6
Total	$438.0	$472.3	$45.1	$56.1

KPIs and Balance Sheet

KPI	Q1 2025	Q2 2025
Awarded Project Backlog ($M)	$2,308	$2,689
Contracted Project Backlog ($M)	$2,596	$2,415
Total Project Backlog ($M)	$4,904	$5,104
O&M Revenue Backlog ($M)	$1,372	$1,346
Energy Asset Visibility ($M)	$3,334	$3,317
Total Revenue Visibility ($M)	$9,610	$9,767
Operating Energy Assets (MWe)	742	749
Corporate Debt ($M)	$270.0	$294.1
Leverage (Debt/EBITDA per facility)	3.2x	3.4x
Energy Asset Debt ($M)	$1,446.8	$1,502.6
Adjusted Cash from Operations ($M)	$1.4	$49.6

Guidance Changes

Metric	Period	Previous Guidance (Q1’25)	Current Guidance (Q2’25)	Change
Revenue	FY 2025	$1.85B – $1.95B	$1.85B – $1.95B	Maintained
Gross Margin	FY 2025	15.5% – 16.0%	15.5% – 16.0%	Maintained
Adjusted EBITDA	FY 2025	$225M – $245M	$225M – $245M	Maintained
D&A	FY 2025	$103M – $105M	$103M – $105M	Maintained
Interest & Other	FY 2025	$85M – $90M	$85M – $90M	Maintained
Effective Tax Rate	FY 2025	(50)% – (35)%	(50)% – (35)%	Maintained
Income Attrib. to NCI	FY 2025	$(5)M – $(8)M	$(5)M – $(8)M	Maintained
Non-GAAP EPS	FY 2025	$0.70 – $0.90	$0.70 – $0.90	Maintained

Management reiterated FY25 and noted Federal cadence improving; potential accounting change for sale-leasebacks still under assessment .

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

Topic	Previous Mentions (Q4 2024)	Previous Mentions (Q1 2025)	Current Period (Q2 2025)	Trend
AI/Data centers, energy infrastructure	Not a focus in PR	No explicit AI, emphasized Federal and tariff mitigation	Improving permitting; Ameresco focusing on energy centers for data centers; early-stage projects under development	Building pipeline; positive optionality
Supply chain (transformers/turbines/batteries)	Cost overruns on legacy projects; general inflationary pressures	Tariffs manageable near-term; equipment largely ordered	Large transformer/turbine lead times; FEOC/tariffs require contract protections and domestic sourcing; supplier bankruptcy noted	Managed headwind
Federal projects cadence	FY25 guide contemplated Federal uncertainty	Delays/“unpaused” projects; seeing Federal RFPs resuming	“Returning to normalized cadence” with re-scoping where needed	Improving
Europe growth/margins	International growth expected	Heavier EPC mix pressured GM slightly	Europe strong; margins improving with discipline	Positive
RNG/ITC/45Z	Record assets placed in service in 2024	Continued asset growth; mitigation of tariffs	First RNG ITC sale (~$71M); 45Z seen as additional opportunity	Monetization improving
SMR/Nuclear partnerships	Not noted	Not noted	SMR partner program leadership; Terrestrial Energy collaboration (longer-dated)	Strategic option

Management Commentary

Strategic positioning: “Diversification is not just a hedge. It’s our strategic advantage… customer base, technology portfolio, geographic reach.”
Demand drivers: “Rapidly increasing demand for electricity, rising utility rates and growing grid instability continue to drive tremendous interest… including renewables, BESS and microgrid offerings.”
Federal outlook: “Business with the Federal Government is returning to a more normalized cadence… OBBB Act… not… material impact… in the short term.”
Margin discipline: “We’ve taken a more disciplined approach to how we screen projects… [margins] trending slightly up… Europe… heading in the right direction.”

Q&A Highlights

Leverage and cash generation: Comfortable at 3.4x; expect leverage to drift lower as EBITDA rises and collections occur; flexible if working capital needed for opportunities .
Contracted backlog conversion: Accelerating conversion from awarded to contracted (contracted backlog +46% YoY) with disciplined margin thresholds, including Europe .
Data center opportunity: Ameresco targeting “energy centers” for data centers; several early-stage projects across sizes; AI load a key driver .
Supply chain/tariffs/FEOC: Large transformers still tight; domestic/non‑lithium storage options under evaluation; FEOC/tariffs addressed via sourcing and pass‑throughs/contract clauses .
Energy asset deployment cadence: 100–120 MWe in 2025 remains intact; RNG plant went COD in July; bigger impact in Q4 and beyond as assets ramp .

Estimates Context

Q2 2025 results versus S&P Global consensus:

Revenue: Actual $472.3M vs $415.3M estimate — Beat (estimate $415.3M*)
EPS: Actual Non-GAAP $0.27 vs $0.05 estimate — Beat (estimate $0.0505*)
EBITDA: Actual Adjusted EBITDA $56.1M vs $51.5M estimate — Beat (estimate $51.5M*)

Out-quarter setup (Street):

Q3 2025: Revenue $518.4M estimate (actual subsequently $526.0M), EPS $0.276 estimate (actual $0.352), EBITDA $65.7M estimate (actual $68.3M) — suggests continued momentum into 2H [GetEstimates; values shown as actuals where available for Q3 2025]*.
Q4 2025: Revenue $556.6M estimate; EPS $0.355 estimate; EBITDA $71.0M estimate [GetEstimates]*.

Values marked with * are retrieved from S&P Global.

Given the magnitude of the Q2 beat and reiterated FY guide, Street models likely need to raise 2H revenue/EPS/EBITDA or shift mix to account for stronger gross margin and better backlog conversion velocity .

Key Takeaways for Investors

Backlog-driven visibility: Record $5.1B total project backlog and ~$9.8B total revenue visibility underpin a multi-quarter runway; 2H should be seasonally stronger with Q4 > Q3 shaping .
Beat-and-raise cadence potential: Large Q2 beat with guide maintained (conservative signal) sets up positive estimate revisions if execution persists and Federal cadence continues to normalize .
Energy Infrastructure flywheel: Growth in Energy Assets and Europe, plus hydropower and data center energy centers, strengthens diversified profit pools and operating leverage .
Managed headwinds: Supply chain/tariffs/FEOC risks are being mitigated (sourcing, clauses), and the Cowen bankruptcy is not expected to affect project execution near term .
Cash/financing toolkit: ITC monetization (~~$71M) and project financings (~~$175M in Q2) support growth while keeping corporate leverage within covenant headroom .
Watch list: 1) Europe margin trajectory, 2) Federal re-scopes and timing, 3) Storage supply/domestic content/FEOC clarity, 4) 2H asset CODs ramping contribution .

Appendix: Q2 2025 vs Consensus (Detail)

Metric	Q2 2025 Actual	Q2 2025 Consensus	Outcome
Revenue ($M)	$472.3	$415.3*	Beat
EPS ($)	$0.27 (Non-GAAP)	$0.0505*	Beat
Adjusted EBITDA ($M)	$56.1	$51.5*	Beat

Values marked with * are retrieved from S&P Global. Definitions for EBITDA/EPS may differ from Ameresco’s “Adjusted EBITDA” and “Non-GAAP EPS.”

Additional details:

Q2 gross margin 15.5%; Adjusted EBITDA margin 11.9% .
EPS benefited by ~$4.3M unhedged derivative gains and ~$3.0M FX gains; Non-GAAP excludes restructuring/contingent consideration and RNCIs per reconciliation .

Ameresco, Inc. (AMRC)·Q2 2025 Earnings Summary